Obama’s reelection chances still hinge on a precariously improving economy, writes Charlie Cookat the Cook Report, letting the air out of some Democrats’ inflated hopes.

The CW syllogism on this issue is that voters decide based on the economy, the economy is improving, solve for x, Obama wins reelection. Cook agrees that voters will cast ballots based on the strength of the economy, but wonders how much the economy is actually improving.